2013 Previews. AL East: The Yankees Muddlers Row.

The ball was chopped slowly and to get the out the first baseman would have to pick it up barehanded in the grass corner between the foul line and the infield dirt. The pitcher would have to hustle over but as the game’s most abused cliche reminds us every 43 minutes, that’s why they have PFP in spring training. With a speedy runner it would still be close but this was the majors and he who executes best laughs last.

The fans at Yankee Stadium didn’t think twice about it when it happened in the top of the fourth yesterday. The play was difficult, but the pitcher was CC Sabathia and his hustle and athleticism have been one of the under-publicized aspects of the franchise’s success since 2009. And of course, the New York first baseman for exactly the same length of time has been Mark Teixeira and the goaltender-like whip-lash catches he makes at the bag and his other defensive wizardry obscures the fact that if that comparatively ordinary slow chopper is hit to him 500 times over a decade he’s going to pick it cleanly at least 499 times.

Except the Yankee first baseman yesterday wasn’t Teixeira, it was Kevin Youkilis. And no offense to Kevin Youkilis, but when he reached down to scoop up the Jose Iglesias chop and toss it to Sabathia for the out he got nothing but grass and air.

An inning later Jarrod Saltalamacchia shot one into the corner in left, where Brett Gardner should have made an adroit pick-up of the ball as it rattled around. Except Gardner was in center because like Teixeira, Curtis Granderson is hurt and it was Vernon Wells. And no offense to Vernon Wells, but when he waited for the straight bounce off the fence that never comes out there, it didn’t come, and he was left to play ‘go chase’ for awhile. All things considered Saltalamacchia probably would’ve gotten a double out of it anyway but there would have been a play and every tenth or twentieth time – an out.

In neither case did the Red Sox score. But those two plays alone added ten pitches or more to Sabathia’s count and send him packing after five innings down 4-to-2, which opened things for the Yankee bullpen, which may be the least recognized problem among the cascade of them that started yesterday, and soon it would 5-to-2 and then 8-to-2 and then just as in “Young Frankenstein,” it got worse – it started raining.

The effect on the offense of the subtraction of Teixeira, Granderson, Derek Jeter, and even Alex Rodriguez is obvious. What will kill the Yankees – and I mean last place kill the Yankees; this is not the collapse of 1965, that was last year in the ALCS, this is 1966 – will be its effect on the defense. Bad defense is not only its own punishment but it makes bums out of the best of the pitchers. And to re-use yet another old joke, kid, these aren’t the best of them.

And much of this mess will never show up in the box score. The Iglesias and Saltalamacchia plays were both clearly to be scored base hits. Unfortunately this Yankee team – the Muddlers’ Row of Brennan Boesch, Ben Francisco, Travis Hafner, Lyle Overbay, Wells, and Youkilis – has been assembled through (in the memorable phrase of the equally memorable San Francisco baseball writer Hank Schulman) dumpster-diving. And defensively they’re just bad enough to not make the plays, but just good enough to not get the errors.

It’s hard to say how this impending disaster will be received in the Bronx. The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992 and they’ve either won or been in contention every year since 1993. Hal Steinbrenner was still at the University of Florida Business School then, and the Yankees could and often did draw half of what they draw these days. A front office with no memory of the Bad Old Days never mind experience with alleviating them is likely to panic and throw some babies out with the bathwater (heck, the Yankees began panicking about mild media criticism more than a year ago). And the front-running fans who have filled the place during these later glory years will not know what that they were seeing, and never fully realize the implications of the fact that their new platoon third baseman was guy who had been released by the Red Sox exactly a week ago today.

Toronto: I’m not one of those stick-in-the-muds who looked at the Dodgers last year and tut-tutted “you can’t parachute in four new guys in mid-season and expect to form a team.” I mean, for one thing I’m an entirely different kind of stick-in-the-mud. But more importantly, that conclusion ignores the reality that the Giants have won two World Series while parachuting in four guys (last year) and five guys (2010).

So my refusal to jump on the Bandwagon going doing Blue Jay Way is nothing about team chemistry or parachuting or trying to meld a team while competing or Jose Reyes’s hamstrings on turf. I just think that the laudable effort to rebuild a once-great franchise has somewhat obscured some remaining problems – like a very average bullpen, very average production out of the DH spot, and trouble at third base until Brett Lawrie returns.

Plus there’s this little scandal from last year that sneaked in under everybody’s radar. The big trade for the noble Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey? It came less than a year after Dickey became one of a handful of major league pitchers to admit to taking painkiller injections during the season (Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz were among the others). In Dickey’s case this was 2011; I’ve seen no reporting about him and the drug – Toradol – in 2012:

Dickey is among the players who believe Toradol is more effective than taking over-the-counter pain pills. He said he believed the injections helped keep him on the field to pitch 2082/3 innings last season (2011), despite his injured foot. Some doctors, though, said athletes might believe Toradol to be more effective only because of the way it is commonly administered.

The emphasis there was mine.

Giving your starting pitcher a series of anti-inflammatory pain-dulling injections all seasons long is ok because the drug, while requiring a prescription, supposedly only has a slightly greater impact than a couple of Advil (injected directly into the source of your pain). Except, oh by the way, that pesky drug insert sheet references limiting its use to five days in pill form and two days for injections, and oh by the way in England physicians are instructed to start patients on Toradol only in a hospital, and oh by the way when Clay Buchholz was in a hospital with internal bleeding last June he said he thought his use of the drug contributed to his crisis and the fact that doctors had to transfuse him with three or four pints of blood.

Dickey is hardly deserving of being the only one with a finger pointed at him. My understanding is there isn’t a rotation in the majors that doesn’t have at least one regular Toradol, and that some of them may be in new uniforms this year in part because of their teams’ fears that the painkiller could mask necessary pain, the kind that warns you of impending injury. For as with any drug that dulls pain, or covers up muscular damage or exhaustion, or which neutralizes tiredness, the possibility is increased of sudden serious injury. You don’t know you’re hurting and you push it to far – and something snaps.

In short, if a Toradol scandal, or a Prescription Drug scandal, breaks in baseball this year the guys on the record as (past) users are few and far between. And only one of them is a defending Cy Young Winner.

Almost as an aside I also have doubts about the efficacy of Toronto’s rotation. Dickey went from 8-13 in 2011 to 20-6 last year. His strikeouts soared from 134 to 230 in only 25 more innings. His offensive support went up 8/10ths of a run. I don’t know if any of that is sustainable or repeatable this year – especially without the joy of facing pitchers every ninth batter. Tell me how much you’re willing to rely on Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, to say nothing of Ricky Romero, currently of the Dunedin Blue Jays.

Boston: The gift of Jackie Bradley being ready as much as a year early – and it is a gift, his at bats are those of a 10-year veteran who draws 100 walks every year – may hide some dubious free agent signings. When your key acquisition does so poorly on his physical that you (and he) agree to cut the deal from three years to one, that’s a problem. When you are hoping that Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Dempster all had ‘blips’ last year, that’s a lot of high-odds wagering.

The Red Sox probably did themselves a favor by sacrificing the stability that was Adrian Gonzalez in order to offload the franchise-sinking contracts of Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford. But as has been noted elsewhere, they were left with a lot of contract room and not that many people to spend it on. Instead of a Josh Hamilton they went for “Clubhouse Guys” – which is great for long road trips, flights, bus rides in traffic, rain delays, etc. – but rarely seems to be the corrective folks assume insomuch as the last time I checked the game was still played out on the field and very rarely in the clubhouse.

Bradley, of course, is the real deal (though I’ve never seen a player whose Dad didn’t reach the majors use the “junior” on his uni – his reads “BRADLEY JR.”). Will Middlebrooks is legit too. If Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia stay healthy that’s four of nine positions that will excel offensively and defensively. But with David Ortiz hurt and presumably waning there is no longer a feared hitter in this line-up and given the depth of this division that’s a serious impediment to contention.

Baltimore: As mentioned in the AL Central preview the Orioles could’ve easily offed the Yankees in the ALDS last year even though they were relying on two outfielders – Lew Ford and Nate McLouth – who had been released earlier in the same season (Ford, by a team in an independent league). The O’s were reshaped by two guys who were largely viewed as having been bypassed by the proverbial parade, Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette, and featured the contributions of only a couple of homegrown guys (Markakis, Machado, Wieters, Jim Johnson).

What becomes of the Orioles when the revivified farm system begins to contribute? Dylan Bundy was arguably the game’s top pitching prospect, until this spring when he was bypassed by his teammate Kevin Gausman. Will they step into the rotation or be used out of the bullpen a la David Price? Could WBC-tested infielder Jonathan Schoop help out? Or outfielder L.J. Hoes? Could any American League team add more key parts from its own farm system as 2013 rolls along?

Tampa Bay: Well, yeah, actually.

Even while trading off Wade Davis and James Shields, the Rays still have a complete back-up rotation (Jeff Niemann in the bullpen, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Alex Colome in the minors) to say nothing of a Cy Young Winner (David Price) and two possible future candidates (Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore) at the front of Plan A.

And if the primary bounty in the Shields trade, Wil Myers, is not summoned into the Tampa line-up it will only be because of injury, or because the traditional small-ball line-up is producing satisfactorily and there’s no need to squeeze out James Loney or the platooners at second or DH.

The key Tampa weakness would seem to be behind the plate. They kept Jose Molina intact enough to appear in 102 games last year and one wonders if that can be done again, or if Jose Lobaton is a satisfactory alternative. There isn’t a catching prospect in the system and despite the sense that the Rays hit the bullseye with every one of their very few economic darts, the minors are thin generally in terms of position players (2009 was a bad draft, and every year that passes makes the 2008 selection of Tim Beckham as the overall number one pick instead of some kid named Posey look that much sillier). But the arms keep appearing, the down-market free agent signings keep producing (you realize that Loney could out-hit his predecessor Carlos Pena by a hundred points and still not hit .300?), and the veterans get transformed either into more draft choices (or guys like Wil Myers. Good grief, the team with the thinnest tightrope in the sport was somehow able to trade for Wil Myers). Marc Topkin has a superb and concise explanation of how the Rays keep the machine turning here and I offer the usual disclaimer here that I went to college with the future Mrs. Stuart Sternberg and their oldest son was an intern for me one summer.

The Division: I know this is viewed as a three, four, or even five team race. I just don’t see anybody seriously challenging the Rays, especially when Myers comes up. I’m not certain on whether the Orioles’ Tampa-like structuring and youth flood can overcome the value of Toronto’s mass additions in the race for second place; either way it’ll be close. The Red Sox are not likely to compete but also not likely to be challenged by the Yankees who – even in the disaster of last place – will still be the division’s lead story.

Tomorrow we’ll finish it up with the Tarot Card reading that those one-game wild cards make trying to predict the playoffs six months in advance.

19 Comments

… FIRST!

Whose on first? Turk, the nine minutes I took to write it were stolen by you! LOL What larks!

I don’t know, KO. But I think you are hitting the nail on the head. And I will be happy to see the last Tarot! It seems the Yanks that you taught us to love are just not who they once were. What about my favorite Yank, Mr. Cano? Mercy! What to do? It is almost like they have become figurines of themselves for purchase at the MLB shop. Shoots. Sad. All the kids who used to walk down my alley and talk sporfs with me have moved out of the hood…and maybe that’s good. Jeter was their God. I still have a heart for that team, but we are watching them go slowly. I love your narrative here of the game yesterday, like watching it in slow motion. Only thing is, sounds like the pace is true to form. And I still feel sad when I think of the example hero A-Rod set for the boys of America…and the world. Kevin was my favorite Red Sock…but who can take the place of Mark at his strategic place? Ball in the Bronx just don’t seem the same. And I’ve never even been there!

The Yankees will be tripped up this summer by their GM’s ongoing contempt for his farm system. Instead of going with Ronnie Mustelier as his righty-hitting 3rd baseman — everyone (except Cashman) says he can really hit — or Vidal Nuno as the extra bullpen lefty, the GM goes with retreads and rejects off the waiver wire. Two years ago, almost everyone who saw Manny Banuelos pitch in Florida said he was ready — right then — to pitch in the majors. But Cashman kicked him and all his kids to the curb. Banuelos scuffled… who knows, maybe Cashman cut out his heart and destroyed his incentive. Even this year, when the GM was asked about Banuelos, he said he won’t pitch until 2014. No holding out the carrot stick of having the young man get himself into pitching shape with the incentive of saying “come help us down the stretch. Bringing Manny aboard on August 15th is like trading for a young star.” No siree… just let Banuelos know that as long as he’s Yankee property, he rots on the DL or in the minors.

So Boston gets an impressive opening game from Jackie Bradley Jr (who’d be looking for apartment rentals near Trenton if he were Yankee property) and Jayson Nix and Vernon Wells elicit yawns from the unhappy crowd in the Bronx.

The Yankees have to be grateful that Bob Watson was the GM in 1996 and not Cashman.. Otherwise, after Tony Fernandez was lost to injury, instead of playing “that kid with grandparents from Jersey” at shortstop, he would have shipped “that Panamanian righty they were not sure would start or relieve” to the Cubs for Felix Fermin. Instead of Jeter and Rivera as the cornerstones of five World Series titles, there would have been no recent dynasty. Instead, Rivera would be winding down a Hall of Fame career in Chicago and Jeter would have been a legend, but in another uniform.

Look at the best and smartest organizations — the Cardinals, Giants and Rays — they build from within. Picking up everyone else’s rejects builds nothing. It’s a lesson Brian Cashman will be learning over the next six months.

Karma is a…well, you know. Here I am talkin’ about the Yanks slowing down…and I just posted a couple of errors myself! A lifetime English prof! Maybe we all fall down. ;)

… funny I was thinking of commenting on that very subject: it’s how you know the usually impeccably-well-writ, grammatically-hyper-dexterous Keith Olbermann MUST be in a world of hurting upon bearing witness to the current (does he hate that word now?) state of his beloved franchise: an error-pocked column/post/observation bearing his name (BTW, and not to split hairs here, but as far as I understand it Lyle Overbay was brought in to platoon at first, and not at third).

Aside from that I was having dinner at a bistro just blocks from the stadium early last night where most of the talk was about and had to do with (what else?) A-Rod’s pre-game comment(s) which, if nothing else affirms once and for all the ol’ populism from that jaded, perpetually-odd Yankee antagonist/Red Sox psycophant Steve Berthiaume: “New York fans are a fickle bunch”… or, perhaps more contextually (less frantically?) speaking now, “redeem thyself, A-Rod; Yankees World”, no?

So you see, everything is going to be just fine; order will prevail.

And now if you excuse me, I must shift focus for the day (Barça v. PSG in about 2 hours time y’alls!).

… I-brahi-mo-vic-hijo-e-puta!

He does it so well, it makes up for all the human folly that follows him. I don’t think the guy loses any sleep over the comments. It would be hard to find a single Yankee fan who has not wavered. Turk, your writing is damn good, too! And I can tell you are just like me…nutty as a Christmas fruitcake! I love it! Yes, something will prevail…I am not sure it will be order…but the universe will probably (prolly) continue to expand as we speak. “All in all, it’s just another brick in the wall…” La chaim! as Passover ends.

… “nutty as a Christmas fruitcake”, eh?

You lil’ tease you; I bet you say that to all the guys!

The part about Toradol reminds me of a man I went to high school with. Curt Marsh… he was an excellent football player, and our team took state easily. Eight of the games that year were shutouts. But when he was in the NFL, he broke his leg. The team doctors told him it wasn’t broken, and they taped it up and he played with it like that. He has since had his leg amputated. Covering up an injury is never a good idea – it can cause even more problems down the road, as Curt knows from direct experience.

Oddly enough, my daughter came home from school one day all excited about the motivational speaker they’d had that day. She started to describe him – and I asked her “was his name Curt Marsh?” Small world.

The focus needs to be on the human being that is the player, and not the profit that the player can make for the team.

Excellent blog, by the way. Thanks, Keith!

I saw that game yesterday, the perks of being unemployed, and I could not believe my eyes. It was like watching a little league game and no offense to the Little Leagues across America. They missed the basics training day I guess. A simple play where the pitcher was to cover first because the first baseman was pulled off is even something I can understand. To actually see CC standing there like a monolith and to lumber towards where he should have been already was like watching the Abbott and Costello routine. Who’s on first? It was funny how no one noticed or maybe they were too embarrassed to say. There was something greatly amiss in that whole scenario and it didn’t get any better. Not to mention the pitcher that came in after Sabathia getting lit up like a roman candle to get all those hits against him and the Sox score repeatedly. I guess it’s the old phrase ‘what goes around comes around’ and now is the era of the Yankee decline. You know what they say about payback. Maybe this loss will rattle some old bones but I doubt it. The Red Sox showed some game but if up against the Yankees that is not saying much. There was no competition. Toronto seems to be the best bet for at least a place but not a show. There is nothing really exciting here. The Yankee drama will be soap opera enough. I am looking forward to your Tarot predictions of the wild card entries. Hope you didn’t get too wet at the game. I let you know the rain was on its way when I tweeted but guess you didn’t see it. Glad to see you enjoying Opening Day.

Mary, Keith’s dad could see all this coming down Broadway long ago when he let go of his Yankee tickets! I’ll bet he is smiling down on the whole fiasco. ;) (Including the near completion of the subway and the upcoming {2525} finish-meets-renovation of St. John the Divine over by the park!)

I can barely contain my excitement that the Dodgers won their Opening Day game against the SF Giants, with pitcher Clayton Kershaw hitting a homerun and pitching a shutout. According to Magic Johnson’s tweets, the fan turnout at Dodger Stadium was amazing. Keeping my fingers, eyes and legs crossed that they continue down this path. :)

Keith, thank god you’re the ‘other kind’ of stick-in-the-mud. That’s why we love you so much! :D

LOL Love it, Shoe! I need to get off here before I become HISTORY or they KO starts writing me checks! But I tweeted with joy and retweeted your tweets concerning those #DingDangDodgers! (Apologies to HamsterTweet!) Uncross your eyes at least! You’ve got work to do! Wheeeeeee! xo

Sadly, i have to admit, Kershaw is “The Giants killer”. That was his third shutout of SF. Cain pitched well, but could not keep up. Another game tonight and Hope reigns eternal; GO GIANTS; BEAT LA!!!

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I have to give hats off to the fans for making the comments on this one as much fun as reading KO himself. It’s going to be a wild and wooly baseball season, no? I wonder, if the Evil Pinstripes do suffer a crash-and-burn of historic proportions this season, will the superstitious call it “The Curse of Keith” or “Olbermann’s Revenge” (“The KO of KO”)? Indeed, what goes around comes around…even if our man is still sitting in the front row of the disaster.

Speaking of which, I really wish I had some way to see Keith Olbermann on my TV regularly the next few months without having to watch a Yankees home game. Please, let it happen!

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I love re-visiting predictions after they are proven oh so gloriously wrong. It seems even Keith needed to be reminded of what baseball is about. It’s not just about spending the money to to acquire over-hyped “stars”, giving false hope to fans that often lasts not even one year (see Boston Red Sox 2011). It’s about putting together a T-E-A-M, preferably of guys who love the game and love each other so much that as a unit they surpass all expectations (see 2013 World Champion Boston Red Sox…the team though “not likely to compete.”)

IDIOT!!!

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